The asset manager downgraded its 2020 economic forecast. Amundi predicts global GDP will contract between 3.5% and 4.7% year-on-year, from a previous estimate of 2.9% to 4.2%.
For 2021, GDP was “mildly revised” upwards to between 4.4% and 5.7%, from a prior estimate of 4.1% to 5.1%.
Amundi Asset Management
“After a robust post-lockdown rebound in activity starting around May and early June, the pace of recovery seems to have slowed and stabilized between July-end and August, and this is visible in both soft and hard data,” Amundi said.
“The recovery curve based on (high-frequency-data) gauges of production activity, the labour market, and consumer sentiment has begun to flatten almost everywhere, without reaching pre-crisis levels, with very few exceptions.”
Data from China shows that the economy experienced continued recovery in its manufacturing and service sectors, and GDP in the second-quarter grew by 3.2%— a sign that it may be on track towards a V-shaped recovery and its darkest days from the pandemic might have passed.