Trump has 91% chance of re-election, according to model that got 25 of the last 27 elections right
The political science professor predicts Trump will have an even larger win in 2020 than his 2016 victory.
A political science professor is asserting that President Donald Trump has a 91% chance of re-election in November against presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden. Stony Brook University professor Helmut Norpoth made this political forecast by using the “Primary Model,” an election prediction model that has a proven track record, including accurately predicting five out of the last six elections.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth told Mediaite on Tuesday. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
The Primary Model, which Norpoth introduced in 1996, predicts that Trump will win the 2020 election by a wider margin than in 2016. The model, which was one of the few prognosticators that foretold a Trump victory.