Professor Who Predicted Last 9 Elections Says Donald Trump Impeachment is Inevitable
A historian who predicted every presidential election since 1984 has said impeachment by the full House is “inevitable” and warned Democrats against putting a “time limit” on their inquiry.
American University history professor Allan Lichtman, who forecast Trump’s election win two months before the fact, told MSNBC yesterday that Democrats would never have taken the impeachment process this far if they were not confident of passing articles of impeachment against the president.
Speaking on the Weekends with Alex Witt show, the historian also said Democrats had “helped themselves” and “diminished” Trump’s chances of being reelected in 2020 by launching an impeachment inquiry.
“Impeachment is now inevitable,” Lichtman told Alex Witt. “The Democrats would never have taken it this far—we know how cautious Nancy Pelosi is—without actually voting articles of impeachment in the full house.
“The only question is the scope and content of those articles.”
The professor, famous for his succession of nine correct election predictions, said he was not ready to forecast who would win in 2020 just yet.
“But I can tell you that Democrats, by finally growing a spine, and moving forward on a pretty clear impeachment… have helped themselves,” he told MSNBC.
He later added: “When Donald Trump becomes only the third American president to be impeached by the full House, that scandal key will have flipped against him, and diminished his chances for reelection.”
The “scandal key” is one of the 13 factors in Lichtman’s “Keys to the White House” prediction system, detailed in a 2016 Washington Post article, that suggests an incumbent in the midst of a major scandal has weakened reelection hopes.
Asked how the current impeachment inquiry compared to the “tenor” of proceedings brought against former President Richard Nixon following the Watergate scandal, X said: “There are some critical lessons here. Democrats, are you listening? The Nixon model shows you cannot put a time limit on impeachment.
“The Nixon investigation started out by looking at the Watergate burglary, and look what else they found over time. Illegal campaign contributions. Illegal wiretaps. Illegal break-ins.”
He added that the “second big lesson” was to “look at the whole picture” of President Trump’s record in office, particularly perceived foreign policy failures—such as the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Kurdish-controlled region of northeastern Syria.
The latest predictions from Lichtman come ahead of further public impeachment inquiry hearings this week, following explosive testimonies from former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch, State Department official George Kent and the top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine Bill Taylor last week.
Witnesses due to appear before House representatives and TV cameras this week include U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland and Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, a National Security Council staffer.