/Tropical Storm Jerry has formed, and heres the track it might be taking
Tropical Storm Jerry has formed, and heres the track it might be taking

Tropical Storm Jerry has formed, and heres the track it might be taking


Just as weather experts had predicted, the Atlantic hurricane basin has come alive with tropical activity — with Hurricane Humberto gaining strength and taking aim at Bermuda, Tropical Depression Imelda pounding parts of Texas with huge amounts of rain, and now a new tropical storm named Jerry swirling in the eastern Atlantic.
So, with all these big storms spinning, should us folks in the eastern United States be worried about potential impacts? The short answer is not right now, but we still have a long hurricane season ahead of us.
“We will have to watch Jerry and a tropical wave behind it,” said Jim Sullivan, a long-range forecaster for the WeatherWorks forecasting company, based in New Jersey. “The most likely solution is they will curve out to sea. If they travel a bit farther south over the next few days, then the risk to the East Coast would increase.”
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For now, the odds favor a track that will take Tropical Storm Jerry across the Caribbean Sea, staying just north of Puerto Rico and east of the Bahamas, according to the latest five-day forecast by the National Hurricane Center. After that, anything is on the table, but Sullivan said most computer guidance models are pointing to a sharp north and east curve similar to Humberto — and Dorian just a couple of weeks ago.
A north-to-east curve would be very good news for the eastern United States. And, in case you’re wondering, it’s not too unusual for several storms close in proximity to be taking similar tracks.
“We sometimes get locked into a similar steering pattern for a few weeks at a time,” Sullivan said, and that’s what is happening now, with a big dome of high pressure sitting over the southern and eastern United States this week.
That big dome is helping to steer big tropical systems away from the Atlantic coast and is also bringing dry and comfortable weather conditions up here in the New Jersey region. It also is likely to keep leftover moisture from Imelda away from our area after it moves away from Texas and Louisiana.
One thing New Jersey and other eastern states need to pay attention to is the higher risk of rough surf and dangerous rip currents from the big ocean swells being generated by Hurricane Humberto throughout this week, forecasters say.
Here’s an update on the status of the three active Atlantic storms.

The Atlantic hurricane basin is bubbling with tropical activity this week.

National Hurricane Center

The Atlantic hurricane basin is bubbling with tropical activity this week.

Hurricane Humberto
Growing in size and strength during the past two days, Hurricane Humberto is now a major Category 3 hurricane, packing sustained winds as strong as 120 mph as of Wednesday afternoon.
Humberto poses no direct threat to the United States but is moving east-northeast in the open Atlantic and the storm’s core is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda late Wednesday night into early Thursday.
“Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda,” the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory. “A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.”
A NOAA hurricane hunter plane has found Humberto’s hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles from the storm’s center, and its tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles. So, although a direct hit on Bermuda is unlikely, the island chain will face hurricane conditions.

The latest forecast track of Hurricane Humberto, which has strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane and is expected to move very close to Bermuda.

National Hurricane Center

The latest forecast track of Hurricane Humberto, which has strengthened into a major Category 3 hurricane and is expected to move very close to Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Jerry
A tropical depression on Tuesday strengthened into Tropical Storm Jerry early Wednesday and is now producing top winds of 60 mph. Forecasters say Jerry will likely strengthen into a hurricane — with maximum winds of 74 mph or greater — as it moves near or north of the northern Leeward Islands in the Caribbean Sea on Friday.
For now, the long-range forecast track takes the center of Jerry slightly north of Puerto Rico on Saturday and east of the Bahamas on Sunday, then curving northward into the open Atlantic, where it could be swirling south and west of Bermuda.
Tropical storm watches have been posted for St. Maarten, St. Martin and St. Barthelemy.
Tropical Depression Imelda
Tropical Storm Imelda, which surprised many forecasters by strengthening at a lightning pace on Tuesday, was downgraded to a tropical depression Tuesday night but continues to dump torrential rain on parts of Texas on Wednesday.
Some hard-hit areas along the upper Texas coast and eastern Texas could get hit with another 5 to 10 inches of rain today through Friday, the National Hurricane Center noted. Some places could end up with rainfall totals as high as 20 to 25 inches by the time the storm is finished.
Parts of southwest Louisiana could get 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 10 inches.
“These rainfall totals may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods,” the hurricane center stressed in its latest public advisory.

Here's how much rain is expected to fall in Texas and Louisiana, thanks to Tropical Depression Imelda.

National Hurricane Center

Here’s how much rain is expected to fall in Texas and Louisiana, thanks to Tropical Depression Imelda.

Len Melisurgo may be reached at LMelisurgo@njadvancemedia.com. Follow him on Twitter @LensReality or like him on Facebook. Find NJ.com on Facebook.
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